What to expect from the weather this summer

Australia's summers have become so extreme it is just about whether we brace ourselves for severe storms or bushfires.

This week the Bureau of Meteorology established we could expect La Niña conditions, which means we are set for a cooler, wetter summer than normal, so more severe storms than bushfires.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Summer Outlook shows eastern Australia is likely to be wetter than average, with an increased risk of tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall and widespread flooding. 

There are no strong swings to either wetter or drier conditions in South Australia, while parts of Western Australia are likely to see average to slightly above average rainfall.

The Bureau’s head of operational climate services, Dr Andrew Watkins said several climate drivers are likely to create continuing wet conditions for parts of eastern Australia this summer.

“The big driver looking at the months ahead is La Niña, which is now established in the Pacific Ocean for the second year in a row," Dr Watkins said.

"La Niña describes a pattern of ocean temperatures that sees warmer waters in the western Pacific, which in turn drives increased atmospheric moisture and rainfall, including heavy rainfall, over Australia. This pattern is likely to continue through until at least the end of January.

"December is likely to see our typical summer weather systems pushed further south than normal, meaning more humid air coming off the Tasman Sea, and into NSW and eastern Victoria."

Even though this will be a wetter summer for many, Dr Watkins said the outlook was an important reminder for the community to always be vigilant for the potential risks of severe weather.

“Spring has been wetter than normal and, as a result, soil moisture is high, water storages are full, and we've seen flooding in some areas. Any additional rain on our already wet landscape will increase the flood risk for eastern Australia this summer.”

Bushfire risk may not be as high this summer as in some recent years, but bushfires happen every summer in Australia and even short periods of hot and windy weather will raise the fire risk.

"This year we need to be extra careful about grass and crop fires, particularly across inland areas and in the southwest of the country where we have had good growth over winter and spring" Dr Watkins said.

Are you concerned about the storm risk in Australia this summer? Do you think it is possible that Australia will ever have another summer without some extreme weather events?

3 comments

Very damp here on the Gold Coast, QLD as I write ...

 

Dorothea Mackellar wrote her classic poem in 1906 about this great land and her reference to droughts and flooding rains was known way back then and not a lot has changed. I remember growing up on the east coast and floods were expected early in most years. There were also a lot of years when it didn't rain a lot, there were no serious bushfires and no widespread droughts. It must be remembered that Australia is the driest, inhabited continent and extremes of weather are what we all live with. Do I think it is possible that Australia will ever have another summer without some extreme weather events? Of course we will although there will always be small areas that will have extreme weather conditions while the rest of us enjoy where we live.

In south east Queensland, the summer is lining up to be very similar to many that we have experienced over the past 60 or so years.  We've had over five years with fewer than usual cyclones and it's time we got back to normal.

Note that the majority of inland rivers are really storm drains and have been formed as a result of millions of years of "extreme" weather events.  In fact all of the valleys in which all of our rivers wander are the result of great amounts of rainfall.

In the southern states, a wet winter and spring is usually followed by a hot and dry summer leading to many bushfires in February and March.  This normal situation may arise again.

3 comments



To make a comment, please register or login

Preview your comment