Study reveals how high Sydney numbers will go under current settings
Sydney University says the daily COVID numbers for Greater Sydney will peak to between 1500 and 6000 cases by October under the current settings.
Its study found that daily numbers could spike up to 40,000 if the current restrictions are lifted, says study author Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, Director of the University of Sydney’s Centre for Complex Systems.
He reckons the total number of Australians infected within a month of reopening could exceed half a million, even with continued testing, tracing, isolation, quarantine and international travel restrictions.
“Our extended projections suggest that Delta cases will initially peak in early October and will begin to drop off as more of the population is vaccinated. However, consistent adherence to social distancing is important to prevent a sharp peak in cases,” said Prof. Prokopenko.
“Although it is encouraging that more people are being vaccinated, we can expect to see a rapid increase in cases when we exit the lockdown. In fact, our modelling suggests the worst is yet to come if the restrictions are removed too soon and too abruptly."
Prof. Prokopenko we may see the pandemic slow from mid-December, or once 75 per cent of the population is vaccinated and some natural immunity kicks in.
“This will depend on the community continuing its high vaccine uptake, people maintaining social distancing over the coming months, and our healthcare system preparing and bolstering itself to meet the surge of hospitalisations which will come after the lockdown.
“Although the current situation is frustrating, the lockdown end is now in sight, and we must not lose our focus until it is safe to do so. As Mahatma Gandhi famously asserted, `to lose patience is to lose the battle’ – this is a warning we must now all heed."
Will you be happy to maintain social distancing and wear a mask if it means lockdowns would be lifted?