Study reveals how high Sydney numbers will go under current settings

graph showing covid cases spiking

Sydney University says the daily COVID numbers for Greater Sydney will peak to between 1500 and 6000 cases by October under the current settings.

Its study found that daily numbers could spike up to 40,000 if the current restrictions are lifted, says study author Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, Director of the University of Sydney’s Centre for Complex Systems.

He reckons the total number of Australians infected within a month of reopening could exceed half a million, even with continued testing, tracing, isolation, quarantine and international travel restrictions.

“Our extended projections suggest that Delta cases will initially peak in early October and will begin to drop off as more of the population is vaccinated. However, consistent adherence to social distancing is important to prevent a sharp peak in cases,” said Prof. Prokopenko. 

“Although it is encouraging that more people are being vaccinated, we can expect to see a rapid increase in cases when we exit the lockdown. In fact, our modelling suggests the worst is yet to come if the restrictions are removed too soon and too abruptly."

Prof. Prokopenko we may see the pandemic slow from mid-December, or once 75 per cent of the population is vaccinated and some natural immunity kicks in. 

“The clear take away is this – with increasing vaccinations there is a path out of the current outbreak, but as a society we can either choose to land softly or come to a dramatic crash landing,” said the professor.

“This will depend on the community continuing its high vaccine uptake, people maintaining social distancing over the coming months, and our healthcare system preparing and bolstering itself to meet the surge of hospitalisations which will come after the lockdown.

“Although the current situation is frustrating, the lockdown end is now in sight, and we must not lose our focus until it is safe to do so. As Mahatma Gandhi famously asserted, `to lose patience is to lose the battle’ – this is a warning we must now all heed."

Will you be happy to maintain social distancing and wear a mask if it means lockdowns would be lifted?


Sydney University says the daily COVID numbers for Greater Sydney will peak to between 1500 and 6000 cases by October under the current settings.

Very scary ... so glad I don't live there.

We will just have to get used to many more deaths than what we have now from Covid


My son in Sydney said the same, he thinks it will be the norm of life.

More like how we live with the winter Flu.

Thats ok, but I think everyone needs to be bale to have a chance to have the jab, there are thousands of us that cannot have it for various reasons. 

Once we who want the jab have had it then it is up to those that don't want it to sort their lives out.

I don't even know if the Pfizer will affect me, but I want to try and have it, I don't want to sit and say I refuse to have it, I will never know until I experience it.  Travelling around the world over the years both with parents and husband we had various injections to help us from infections.

Gosh husband has had more than any of us living in Africa and has experienced many infections that have not been nice.  Bulharzia  [not sure of the spelling] is from the snails that swim in rivers in Africa, he has had that to live with, besides three others.  He now has had his three Jabs and has not had a reaction to it.

We don't know what life has in store for us until we dry!

Remember all the millions that were going to die from covid when it first arrived? Are we going to keep the country locked down forever?

heck no, federal election due next year and Morrison wants to have led the nation out of the covid wilderness so he has a win ... remember, it's how you finish the race that counts and how good is freedom? We will have long forgotten his previous missteps as we live like we are in WA.

Anyone reading the tea leaves can see the electorate mind set has changed from 2020. Folks are tired of restrictions and see people overseas partying on while we are locked down for a small fraction of the cases in other developed countries. The original intent was to flatten the curve, not eliminate, and that supposes a manageable number of hospital admissions, and deaths. Sweden had only nine deaths in July, that now seems an acceptable price not to be locked down.

They base their lockdown's on the numbers of cases, I feel we should only be counting hospital admissions and deaths. The people most crushed by lockdown's is small business. Many have closed up shop forever. I always thought from the beginning, we should protect the old and vulnerable better, but look what happened in Victoria in aged care. Daniel Andrews is enjoying his power while he can, turning Victoria into DanAndrewstan, or if you prefer the Southern most state of China. 

How will we all feel if only vaccinated people are allowed to travel, attend gatherings like festivals and use restaurants and hairdressers?  As someone who is fully vaccinated I think, what a great idea!

choices have consequences. Cannot continue with lockdown policies to protect the vulnerable.

What criteria did the learned professor consider when he made his pronouncement? Has anyone asked for a second opinion from an equally qualified person? Surely any good journalist would at least check whether a comment has substance? Remember, it was an "expert" who claimed that COVID would kill between 50,000 and 150,000 Australians. I'd rather accept the words of a health professional than someone whose expertise lies in computer science, economics and applied mathematics. We are in a health crisis.

actually the numbers guys may well have a better idea than your average numerally challenged health professional. But if you want a different view then look no further than Prof. Allan Saul, senior research fellow, biostatistician and infectious diseases expert at the Burnet Institute. He has warned NSW's overwhelmed contact tracing system puts Australia in a precarious position.

He says "there are effectively two scenarios for managing COVID: one where there is no community transmission and the other where there is transmission on the scale seen in the UK. We don’t need models, we can see it around the world. On Thursday, the United Kingdom had 38,000 cases of COVID-19, 1000 hospital emissions and 140 deaths”. More

So vaccinations are working well in the UK then?

Once we reach >80% of the population double vaccinated, cases will cease to be of much importance. Vaccination clearly protects people from serious illness and death. That being the case vaccination is the key to opening up and living life. Yes people will get sick but they won't overwhelm the health system or ICU.

And yes, I agree Buggsie benefits for the vaccinated are the way to go. But there will need to be arrangements for the tiny minority of people who may not be able to be vaccinated (not those who simply choose not to), but they will be protected by the rest of us.

You can bet that the high numbers now are a direct consequence of the low life anti vax dumb arses who are getting about in a heard of idiots to yell about their rights as fools to risk more lock downs and more cases.

The police should hose them down with fire hoses and add some food dye to mark them on their way home, we will all be able to identify the mongrells and stay away from them. Publish their names and address and report them to any employers they might have so they know who to blame for their businesses failing.

Numbers remain high today 1 September 2021 in NSW with ...

1,116 new locally acquired cases and 4 deaths.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the four women - aged in their 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s - were not vaccinated and all had underlying health conditions.

She forgot to mention these women caught the covid in hospitals

Gladys has much on her mind these days and would prefer to regale us with tales of how NSW is leading the nation out of the pandemic through vaccinations.


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