Researchers back longer lockdowns to crush COVID
The NSW Government is expected to make a high-pressure decision on Wednesday about whether to relax current restrictions because of the latest COVID-19 outbreak.
Research just published by Professor Quentin Grafton from the Australian National University highlights the hazards of relaxing before zero community transmission is likely.
The researchers found the net benefits of lockdowns that are sufficiently long enough to get community transmission to zero far outweigh any short-term gains of relaxing lockdowns too soon.
“Our key insight was that lockdowns need to be long enough to crush the virus, and that effective, longer lockdowns benefit both public health and the economy,” Prof. Grafton said.
“Greater Sydney is approaching the end of the initial two-week lockdown. The NSW Government is under pressure to relax those restrictions, but decisions must be based on the facts on the ground such as the number of new cases, links to known chains of transmission, and the number of new cases not already in self-isolation.”
University of Melbourne Professor Tom Kompas said we need to rethink how COVID-19 outbreaks are managed.
“We’re a long way from a post-COVID world. If we think we can do away with periods of movement restrictions when uncontrolled outbreaks occur, we need to think again,” Prof. Kompas said.
“The key point here is not to think about the economic costs over a period of a couple of weeks, large as they are, but rather to consider the costs over a period of months if community transmission continues.”
The paper also looked at the public health and economic questions facing Australia and evaluated the costs and benefits of restrictions that result in zero community transmission of COVID-19.
“Our results support strategies that go hard against COVID-19 infections and get us to zero community transmission. This is especially the case now with this Delta variant and Australia’s currently low vaccination level,” Prof. Grafton said.
“To ensure compliance and to help those who are doing it tough, we need sufficient levels of financial support for the people who are most affected by lockdowns,” he said.
Do you think the Sydney lockdown will end after the initial two-week period? Do you fear NSW will open things up too early and risk further outbreaks?
This cartoon caught my eye this morning, HOLA. Imagine a grown man, DeBelin, hiding under a bed from police. A reader hoped that the police investigating did the right thing by calling out: "Ready or not, here we come!"
Lockdowns work providing people stick to the rules. Not like those pathetic St. George football players who went to a team players place for a Bar-B-Que on Sunday. When neighbours rang Police to complain about it they scurried away, some hiding in wardrobes and under beds. I'm glad they had the book thrown at them. All having to face large fines and some suspensions from further games. I somehow think footballers are not the full quid, maybe two many hits to the heads.