Polling: lies, damned lies and statistics

I think I have seen it all now and I'll die happy. An enquiry into how the polls got it so wrong in the past has blamed, wait for it, the people! Those who conducted the polls won't admit they got it wrong. No, they have been right and the results they predicted would have been shown to be right if only the people had given the right answer to the polls.

 

What we are never told is what questions are asked in polls, what demographic is polled or what areas in which polls are conducted. If a simple question was put such as, "Who will you vote for in the next election?" then the poll might throw up a closer result. But no, they have to cloud the issue by asking questions prefaced by hypothetical scenarios. Who cares who is the favoured PM, the only people that matter in that question, this election, are the voters in Cook and Grayndler. Voters don't choose a PM, the party with the most seats does that.

 

Just to finish up on this topic, if the polls were to be believed, Hillary would have been POTUS, the UK would still be in the EU and Shorten would have been PM in 2019. This clip from "Yes Prime Minister", although nearly 40 years old, still is very pertinent to politics today and shows how polls are really useless.

https://youtu.be/ahgjEjJkZks

 

1 comments

We live in a seat that Labor has held since it was first named and, as is usual in safe seats, we have never been polled. Why waste money asking people when you don't care what they think? But wait, we have been polled three times in the past fortnight so I think someone is worried that Labor just might lose this seat.

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